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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 22

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model