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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to ARI 24, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 27 for 3 yards (98-B.Richter).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model