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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Arizona Cardinals 19

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 96-J.Romo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model