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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP