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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model