Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 74

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 10

(12:50) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to DET 18, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-M.Alexander ran ob at DET 26 for 8 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.62 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model