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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 18

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 39-J.Bates 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model