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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 66

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to DET 8, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-M.Alexander to DET 31 for 23 yards (23-R.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model