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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 32

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to CHI 30 for 2 yards (52-D.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model