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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 30

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model