Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 16

(:03) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right. Ball thrown away.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

What Happened

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.11 EP
46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -2.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.91 EP