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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 54

Detroit Lions 23 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to CHI 15, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model