Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 93

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 23

(10:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to DET 39, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-M.Alexander to 50 for 11 yards (30-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.13 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 93, worth -5.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model