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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 64 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to HOU 17 for 10 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.11 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP