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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 11

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model