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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(:12) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model