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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 63

Houston Texans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP