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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.24 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model