Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 3-T.Dell ran ob at HOU 39 for 14 yards (89-L.Farrell). PENALTY on JAX-89-L.Farrell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model