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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(9:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 12-D.Duvernay to HOU 24 for 5 yards (20-J.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model