4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(7:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP