Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 67

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(3:02) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.97 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model