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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.48 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model