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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 35

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model