4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 81-K.Austin to LA 45 for 4 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model