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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 42-E.Evans punts 35 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model