4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith. PENALTY on LA-19-X.Smith, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NO 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.33 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model