4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 6 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 43-M.Hayball punts 33 yards to LA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model