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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.28 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model