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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 14-M.Araiza punts 29 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model