4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 2-D.Carlson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP