Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to KC 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-34-T.Harper, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.50 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model