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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 23

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 49-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model