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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 49-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP