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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:16) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to LV 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 8-A.Abdullah pushed ob at LV 31 for 12 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model