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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 49-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.33 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP