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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 40

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 2-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model