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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.83 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.04 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP