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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 25

Miami Dolphins 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at GB 9 for 16 yards (21-E.Stokes).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.28 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model