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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model