4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-22-R.Rochell at MIA 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model