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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 6

Green Bay Packers 24 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.23 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 6, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP