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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 1

Miami Dolphins 11 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at GB 7 for -6 yards (7-Q.Walker). Penalty on MIA-74-L.Eichenberg, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model