Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 17 – Green Bay Packers 30

(:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith to MIA 36 for 11 yards (33-E.Williams; 7-Q.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.71 EP
53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -2.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model