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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to PIT 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP