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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.23 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model