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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 41 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.33 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model