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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Jets
4th & 2 at the 48
New York Jets 21 – Seattle Seahawks 13
What Actually Happened
(6:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Adams.
The Three Options
GO
+0.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
- 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK
-1.19 EP
- 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 69% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
