4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 13 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.62 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP