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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NYJ 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model